Robust Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling of time to positivity in tuberculosis trials

Early phase 2 tuberculosis (TB) trials are conducted to characterize the early bactericidal activity (EBA) of anti‐TB drugs. The EBA of anti‐TB drugs has conventionally been calculated as the rate of decline in colony forming unit (CFU) count during the first 14 days of treatment. The measurement of CFU count, however, is expensive and prone to contamination. Alternatively to CFU count, time to positivity (TTP), which is a potential biomarker for long‐term efficacy of anti‐TB drugs, can be used to characterize EBA. The current Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) regression model for TTP data, however, lacks robustness to gross outliers that often are present in the data. The conventional way of handling such outliers involves their identification by visual inspection and subsequent exclusion from the analysis. However, this process can be questioned because of its subjective nature. For this reason, we fitted robust versions of the Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects regression model to a wide range of TTP datasets. The performance of the explored models was assessed through model comparison statistics and a simulation study. We conclude that fitting a robust model to TTP data obviates the need for explicit identification and subsequent “deletion” of outliers but ensures that gross outliers exert no undue influence on model fits. We recommend that the current practice of fitting conventional normal theory models be abandoned in favor of fitting robust models to TTP data.     

Stretching the borders: how international business travel affects the work–family balance

This study examined the consequences of international business travel for the balance between work–family domains by exploring how international business travellers and travellers’ partners manage the boundaries between work and family in order to maintain the balance. Interpretative phenomenological analysis was used in analysing the semi-structured interviews of 10 male travellers and 10 partners. Because of its irregular nature, international business travel affects the personal life and the family of business travellers. Work-related travel also has an impact on how travellers and their partners construct, manage and negotiate borders between work and family in order to avoid an imbalance between these domains. Integration of work and family is usually inevitable in international business traveler families. Integration may lead to role blurring and thus lead to imbalance.     

Quick,uncertain, and delayed adults: timing,sequencing and duration of youth-adult transitions in Canada

The transition from youth to adulthood in western societies has become more prolonged and complex as traditional societal norms have lost influence. Using retrospective data from a cohort of 43-year-old Canadians surveyed in 2010 (n?=?405), we mapped the timing, sequencing, and duration of ‘first stage’ youth-adult transitions (leaving home, finishing formal education, obtaining a full-time job) and ‘second stage’ youth-adult transitions (marriage, parenthood, home ownership). Latent profile analysis identified five distinct transition profiles – norm-setters, quick adults, uncertain adults, adult students, and delayed adults – with different amounts and timing of post-secondary educational investment playing an important profile-shaping role. Although youth-adult transitions have become less standardized and more individualized, especially for first stage transitions, these transitions are still quite structured and continue to be affected by gender and family socioeconomic status.     

Do public relations practitioners perceptually share ingroup affiliation with journalists?

Upwards of 200 studies over the past hundred years have reported on the relationship between public relations practitioners and journalists. However, no experiment has compared the group members’ perceptions when seeing their roles in action. Inspired by frameworks of social identity theory, intergroup deception, and the black sheep effect, we test how public relations practitioners and journalists respond to a crisis communication media interview. In our experiment, a company spokesperson either answers questions or engages in stereotypical “spin,” which journalists historically consider one of the most offensive public relations strategies. Results indicate that public relations practitioners align with journalists in their perceptions of a spokesperson’s trustworthiness and the organization’s trustworthiness across treatment conditions. Practitioners also manifest the black sheep effect, disliking their group representative engaging in deception. Furthermore, we explore whether the effects on perceptions of trustworthiness are moderated by psychological identification with their respective industry. Discussion concerns the theoretical and practical ramifications of the groups sharing ingroup affiliation, contrary to prevailing notions of acrimony.     

Business reform outcomes: Why so different?

Post-crisis policy making increasingly focuses on doing business reforms. We argue that the effects of those reforms will be different across countries. To understand the reasons for the reform outcome divergence, we advance a novel firm-size distribution (FSDs) argument. At the center of the argument is the fact that FSDs are different across countries and stable over time. Then, if a given doing business reform induces firms of different size to grow differently, this will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries. To advance the argument, we set up a tractable general equilibrium (GE) model and study how firms of different size grow after a doing business reform. The model predicts that larger firms will grow faster than smaller firms after the reform. The model predictions are tested on the Enterprise Surveys (ES) data, merged with the Doing Business indicators. We confirm that firms of different size grow differently after a Doing Business reform. Thus, based on the notable differences of firm size distributions across countries, identical reforms to start, operate and close a business will produce a variety of reform outcomes across countries.     

Divorce,living arrangements,and material well-being during the transition to adulthood in rural Malawi

In this paper, we use longitudinal data to investigate how parental death and divorce influence young women’s own experience of divorce in Malawi, a setting where women marry relatively early and unions are fragile. We find that maternal death and parental divorce are positively associated with divorce for young women but, after controlling for socio-demographic and marital characteristics, only the association with maternal death remains statistically significant. Maternal and paternal death are both strongly associated with women’s post-divorce living arrangements, which in turn affects their material well-being. This finding suggests that divorcing at a young age shapes the subsequent life chances of women; although some women return to their parental home and may have the opportunity to reset the transition to adulthood, other women begin their 20s as head of their own household and with considerable material disadvantage.     

高校思想政治理论课“三进”方式方法探析——以《马克思主义基本原理概论》为例

为了让习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想“进教材、进课堂、进头脑”，需要从方式、方法层面进行分析。在深耕教材的基础上，发现2018版《马克思主义基本原理概论》教材在融入习思想时，依据不同内容主要采取了文献参考式、引入说明式、说明原理式、补充创新式、替代更新式等方法。为有效做好教材体系向教学体系转换，针对教材中对习思想融入的不同方式，可以因内容分别或组合选择活动拓展法、课前一语法、习近平话语中心式教学法、问题式教学法、案例教学法等。在转化过程中，在方法论上必须坚持马克思主义辩证法，具体问题具体分析，做到转化有法但无定法；在转化的内容和方法的关系上，必须坚持内容和方法的有机统一，从习思想和教材整体视角审视转化，处理好整体与部分的关系；在思政课的价值引领方面，必须处理好真理与价值的关系，把转化最终落脚于价值转化，使习思想真正入脑、入心。     

Health insurance literacy: A mixed methods study of college students

Objective: This study examines the health insurance literacy, or the ability to use health insurance effectively, of college students. Participants: A total of 455 students from a large, public university completed an online questionnaire in November 2016. Methods: A questionnaire examined students’ knowledge of commonly encountered health insurance terms and ability to apply that knowledge to determine cost-sharing in a clinical setting. Results: The majority of students were able to correctly identify the most commonly encountered terms, but could not identify terms related to plan types and options. Eighty-eight percent of students could not determine their cost-sharing for two presented scenarios. Approximately half of the students indicated they had been confused about their health insurance plan, with one-quarter of students stopping or delaying medical care due to confusion. Conclusions: Outreach and education for students should target specific deficits in knowledge such as those identified in this study.     

大学生返乡创业生态系统：目标、要素、机理和对策*

创业生态系统从生态系统的视角揭示了创业生态中创业主体、创业要素、创业环境以及各要素之间的相互作用。创业生态系统是一个复杂的自适应系统，其具有复杂的自适应系统的各项特征，从系统的角度来讲，其具有系统的目标、要素、运行机理和系统边界。本文以大学生返乡创业生态系统为例，从系统目标、系统要素和系统的运行机理三个方面立体剖析了创业生态系统的内涵和外延。同时，对大学生返乡创业生态系统的目标设定、大学生返乡创业生态系统各要素的构成以及大学生创业生态系统的运行机理进行了分析，对强化大学生返乡创业生态系统的构建提出了对策建议，为促进大学生返乡创业和乡村振兴提供参考。     

民汉双语诉讼规则之探索

我国宪法赋予了公民用自己的民族语言文字参加诉讼的权利，目的在于实现民族平等、促进民族团结、禁止民族分裂、保护中华民族语言文化的多样性，进而提高我国的文化软实力。通过调查民族语言文字诉讼司法实务，发现当前存在着少数民族语言文字诉讼程序混乱、不符合诉讼原理等问题，不利于民族语言文字诉讼权利的实现。究其原因，在于该诉讼制度缺乏程序保障。为了确保民族语言文字诉讼权利的有效实现，应设立“民汉双语诉讼规则”，以为司法机关提供统一的操作规范。民汉双语诉讼规则应该明确民汉双语诉讼的概念、类型以及民族语言文字诉讼权利的内容，并且根据不同诉讼类型有针对性地设置审判语言与诉讼语言的适用规则。